KRISTOL

Posted at 7:24 p.m. ET

Bill Kristol, in today's New York Times, assesses the reaction to the McCain's selection of Sarah Palin, and also provides a very useful history lesson for those concerned about the experience factor.  First, on news coverage of Palin:

Will that coverage continue to be as belittling of Palin as much of it has been so far? Probably. It’s not just that many in the media don’t like her politics and don’t identify with her socially or culturally. They’re offended that McCain picked Palin without, so to speak, consulting them. The establishment media take pride in their role as gatekeeper to our political process and social discourse.

So the gatekeeper media’s reaction has been: Who is Sarah Palin to suddenly show up on the national stage? We didn’t vet her. And we don’t approve of her.

Having been in journalism, I can report that Kristol is dead on.  Many journalists are frustrated that they lack actual decision-making power.  So they go for the next best thing - influencing the decision makers.  When they're ignored, they pout.

How will the Obama side deal with Sarah Palin?

To the degree they have to address the Palin question, they’ll stick to the argument they made in their first reaction to the Palin announcement: “Today, John McCain put the former mayor of a town of 9,000 with zero foreign policy experience a heartbeat away from the presidency.”

According to Safire’s Political Dictionary, the “heartbeat away from the presidency” locution may date from 1952, when the Democratic nominee, Adlai Stevenson, attacked the Republican V.P. candidate, the 39-year old Richard Nixon, “who asks you to place him a heartbeat from the presidency.” A half-century before, William McKinley’s campaign manager, Mark Hanna, alarmed by the prospect of the 41-year-old Teddy Roosevelt as the V.P. nominee in 1900, is reported to have warned “that there is only one life between the Vice President and the Chief Magistracy of the nation.”

In neither case were voters moved by the “heartbeat away” concern. McKinley and Eisenhower both won easily.

Kristol presents the record:

Should voters be alarmed by a relatively young or inexperienced vice-presidential candidate? No. Since 1900, five vice presidents have succeeded to the presidency during their term in office: Teddy Roosevelt in 1901, Calvin Coolidge in 1923, Harry Truman in 1945, Lyndon Johnson in 1963, and Gerald Ford in 1974. Teddy Roosevelt took over at age 42, becoming our youngest president, and he’s generally thought to have proved up to the job. Truman was V.P. for less than three months and had been kept in the dark by Franklin Roosevelt about such matters as the atom bomb — and he’s generally thought to have risen to the occasion. Character, judgment and the ability to learn seem to matter more to success as president than the number of years one’s been in Washington.

There is, though, a uniqueness about Sarah Palin:

McCain didn’t just pick a politician who could appeal to Wal-Mart Moms. He picked a Wal-Mart Mom. Indeed, he picked someone who, in 1999, as Wasilla mayor, presided over a wedding of two Wal-Mart associates at the local Wal-Mart. “It was so sweet,” said Palin, according to The Anchorage Daily News. “It was so Wasilla.”

A Wasilla Wal-Mart Mom a heartbeat away? I suspect most voters will say, No problem. And some — perhaps a decisive number — will say, It’s about time.

But be careful of those gatekeepers, the disappointed journalists who weren't consulted, whose Georgetown-party advice was not taken.  In a close race, their coverage can make the difference. 

We'll be watching closely to see whether McCain retains his convention bounce over the next week or two, or whether the race slides back to where it was in August - close, but with Obama leading.  Right now, Obama is playing defense, thrown by the success of the GOP convention, and by the magic of Sarah.  Expect that playbook to change.  Chicago-based politicians don't play defense very long.

September 8, 2008.